Since 10 days sea ice extent is falling of the cliff. Over the course of June it showed already little difference to 2010. Now it even starts with steeper decrement compared to 2007 into July. Most likely the extent will drop below 8 Msqkm today or tomorrow.

Most weather models calculate the high pressure system over Arctic Ocean for another week with less power, though. Since the Nares Strait is virtually open, the overall ice drift direction targets the region from there to Fram Strait and Barenst Sea. In short: strong multi-year ice seeks warm Atlantic.

The animation above reveals that a large amount of old ice north of Greenland up to five meter thick was already transported beyond Fram Strait last Winter by the Transpolar Drift. The lack of the thickest floes could explain early active ice in Lincoln Sea this spring.

Fram Strait is the main exit of sea ice willing to melt in Greenland Sea. A thinner, more fractured ice pack with smaller and faster drifting floes will move up a gear.